The blocking pattern is back, like what we saw much of Dec/Jan this past winter.

Here on the water vapor image we can see a blocking pattern in place with an Omega block over Canada and a -NAO over Greenland.

Here is the Thursday evening upper air observation at 500mb.

And with an upper ridge in Canada and an upper low in eastern Canada, we here on the eastern US can expect cooler and wetter conditions. Highs will be droping ESE out of Canada and surface lows across the southern/central US untill this pattern breaks down sometime possibly next week.

One more warm day for central NC then a return to more early spring like weather/cooler weather.

Well a big pattern change is coming by Thursday and onward. With tomorrow the transition day as a cold front slides by the area bringing a chance for some thunderstorms possible. Now on to the patter set up for late March into early April at least. Lets start with todays setup below, as you can see a typical La Nina SE US ridge in place and a western US trough.

As we move into this weekend cooler/wetter weather looks to setup with the models showing a chilly/cold rain for central/western NC, noted by the GFS/ECMWF below.(for Tuesday morning)

Both models agree on a cold air damming setup east of the Mnts in NC, possible severe weather for the deep south and south eastern NC and SC.
The NAO is looking to go on the negative side for a while as seen below and the PNA positive.

So what does this mean, well after tomorrow (Wed) you can say goodbye to the beautiful 80 degree weather as cooler and possibly wetter weather to end March and start April, although I am keeping an eye on mid April for a return to warmer weather but Ill have more on April as the end of March draws closer.

Warmth on the way, then cooler weather by end of March.

Tomorrow and Friday/Saturday will be beautiful days across central NC with highs in the 70s and even 80s by Friday and Saturday. But by Sunday a backdoor cold front will slide in cooling us down for a day or so. Lets take a look at the set up for Fri/Saturday.
Friday's set up.

Nice upper lvl and surface ridge bringing in much above normal temperatures by close to 15-20 above, with a west/south west flow. Heres Saturdays high temps with some parts of the state getting into the low 80s.

But as such this time of year weather like this wont last long as cooler air will try and make a come back seen in this next image with a backdoor cold front coming in from the NE.

By Tuesday though this front will lift north again as a warm front and bring a surge of warm air back into NC.

And with that will come warmer temps as seen below.

Could be back in the mid to upper 70s here in central NC. Taking a look at the longer range though shows cooler/stormy weather may come back with the NAO going negative.

also severe weather could spike up again.

Warm up on the way next week, AFTER a chilly/cold rain early in the week.

Sorry for the lack of updates, Ive been busy with some other things. Now I wont touch on early next week as its looking like a two day deal or so Mon-Tuesday with chilly temps and some rain. I do want to talk about the big warmth coming later on next week. We'll start with day 5 Wed of next week and you can see the GFS Ens mean temp departures above normal.

Thats just the beginning as the warmth moves east heres day 7,

Friday is really looking like a warm day. Heres the ECMWF overview of Friday,

Just really warm stuff and HOT in the southern plains. Also the GFS agrees for the most part on this warmth coming east.

After all is said and done heres the week 2(not end of next week but after) departures.

And the EC/GFS 8-10day mean 500mb.

So some warm times ahead indeed.