Large storm to take shape over Mid Western/Eastern US

A large and powerful fall storm is forecast to take shape in the upper Mid West and move slowly east. 

We see the beginnings of this over Montana and into the Dakotas (area of clouds) Jet stream analysis shows the powerful Jet entering the Pacific North West. 

This image shows mean sea level pressure with the main low over Saskatchewan Canada. We look at the short term forecast models for how this system may unfold. Here is what the NAM model shows 24hrs from 2pm October 16 

This powerful Jet streak in the Pac NW is forecast to deepen the Low in southern Canada while sending a cold front plowing east. (also the NAM 48hr forecast)

Though this model puts out rain in the South East, there is some large differences with some other models on just how much if any rain affects North Carolina. Here is what the Official forecast from the HPC 

Warm for the rest of the week, turning much cooler by early next week!

Last few days have felt warm and a bit humid (almost late August than early October) while the air will dry in the coming days (though warmth will stay around with temps in the low 80s) By this weekend will a large change in temperatures are forecast. Looking at our forecast model (GFS/ US model) 

Mild temps out ahead of the next front that will really knock temps back.

Both models are valid Monday Oct 8th. All thanks to a large trough setting up over eastern North America.

There are still signs from the longer range more reliable European model as well for cooler temps in the east

Beyond this I expect a warmer/mild pattern as we head into later October with Halloween possibly being mild for the South East? we'll see.

Chance of severe storms later (low chance)

Most of NC is locked in a cool wedge air mass today as a weak surface high over the Great Lakes ridges down the eastern side of the Mountains and a storm systems moves in from the west/south west. 

With that comes clouds and rain 

Now watching things around southern portions of NC for later tonight as the warm front moves northward overnight, with this comes the chance for storms as more unstable airs moves in 

though the warm front may not make much progress into North Carolina tonight and may move north by early tomorrow as seen in this HPC forecast image overnight (2am) 

Though the chance is low, any storms that can develop has a good chance of rotation and with the cloud bases close enough an isolated tornado is possible (but again low chance)