Saturday, June 2, 2012

Winter like pattern for eastern US in June?

        Current temps across most of the eastern US are more like fall than early summer. The reason for this is a big upper Low over the North East US seen below on water vapor satellite.
This upper Low being almost stationary for most of next week is being caused by a negative NAO or a large blocking High pressure over Greenland. This will keep most of the eastern US and North East cool with New England staying cool, cloudy and rainy at times. Here for central NC we should be temps head back to around 80 for Sunday and maybe Monday before that upper Low sends another bit of upper level energy down through parts of the Mid West and through the South East mid week seen here on the GFS model.
A frontal boundary should stall and perhaps washout somewhere over the South East next week as seen by the ECMWF model for Wednesday. 
So  while the start of June should be cool and below normal for much of the eastern US, there are some signs of the -NAO breaking down and much warmer/hot weather should flood the eastern US later in June.

Friday, May 11, 2012

StormSquad.net to be at Stormfest in Raleigh.

News has come today that we (StormSquad) will be giving a presentation at StormFest in Raleigh on June 16 2012. More info to come.
-Nic

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

GFS picking up on the pattern change (SOME) but still lack of good blocking

 The GFS is catching on to a more colder possible stormy pattern to end December. Here in this image I have the GFS for Dec 24th (left) and Dec 26th (right) Now Not sure that this would being snow (if any) to NC east of the Mnts BUT has been showing up run to run.
NAO (seen here>, looks to go a bit Neg but still not a strong blocking signal at all. 
The AO also goes down some which would also help (SOME) this too is not enough to dump too much cold south 
If you scroll through this link here (which is the GFS ensemble members) start at hour 264 and so on, some do show a coastal storm off the SE US coast and some cold air in place (noted by the 540 red line over NC) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html