After what seemed like an endless winter for people in the Mid West and Chicago, it looks like another severe weather event will come together for these areas starting on Sunday.
Lets take a look at the setup here and one thing I like to look at for convection is called Theta-E. Simply put this is a combination of the surface temperature and dewpoint. The higher the temp and dewpoint the higher the Theta-E and it is a good place to look for possible convection. Heres Sundays Theta-E map.
Next we need to look for CAPE, and in this case surface based CAPE.
Those two parameters alone can give you an idea if storms are possible but if a strong cap is in place or nothing to get lift going then your likely not to have much, but in this case we will have a lifting trigger and thats the cold front. Taking a look at the Helicity values there will be some of that/Along with EHI values over 1 and that means a higher potential for tornadoes.
Also for supercells I look at the Sfc-1km shear and shear in this area of 30-40knts or greater means a higher likelihood of supercells. This is for overnight Sunday.
and 6hr precip overnight.
And with all this in mind NC also looks to get in on some severe weather by day3
Thats all for now Ill hae more later.
Very nice! I've been keeping up a forecast blog as well for East Central Florida. Very informal, geared in writing so that almost anyone can understand it...Weather Made Clear (for all to hear). Steve.
ReplyDeleteThank you Steve, I really appreciate. I did come across a blog for FL on FB not sure if its yours but if so I liked it and Ill bookmark your site, thanks again.
ReplyDelete-Nic.