Snow outlook for central North Carolina, Wednesday evening-Thursday morning.

Tuesday evening update for snow coming to NC tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Lets start with a forecast for snowfall in central plains states, where up to a foot is expected.

Heres what the snow forecast looks like for us here in the Carolinas.

Yes hardly any, because this system is going to weaken as it moves east into the SE US. So light QPF amounts can be expected here in NC, BUT eastern NC may see 2-4in of snow and thus Winter Storm watches are out.
Lets take a look at the forecast models for Wed-Thursday. We'll start off with the NAM 7am forecast map

Any precip that falls north of the blue box I have drawn will fall mostly as snow. So why so little snow expected for NC(well central NC) lets look at the NAM for 1am Thursday morning,

You can see the Low really weakens and in fact we start to see a Low develop off the Carolina coast and that will help enhance snow along eastern NC. but us here in central NC should see less, But I cant rule out a few areas getting up to an inch or so but mostly snow showers to flurries.
Then we look at what the NAM (short range) computer model shows for snowcover (on a 10:1 ratio).

And this is by 7am Thursday morning and Im leaning with less amounts for places just east of the mountains to Raleigh.

Up's and downs is the rule. Talking about the upcomeing weather pattern.

The roller coaster of temps has begun, and with that comes the spring like weather patterns of warm/cold/warm/cold. That looks to be the rule in the coming week or so. Ill start by showing the day 10 mean temp departure for the GFS.

This is for Friday Feb 18. And thats a lot of warmth in fact the upper mid west may see rain and not snow sometime in the coming week. Also I should have post this image first but this is for next Thursday Feb 17th showing a BIG SE ridge and lots of warmth coming up and a storm system out over the Rockies, and while its too early to really say, But there could be some severe weather to follow this warm up in the southern plains and deep south.

Also looking at the end of week 2 temps the GFS shows mostly a warm pattern for much of the US.

I also like the look of the EC and GFS 8-10day mean H5 (500mb) height anomaly.

Just a beautiful warm pattern if your a lover of warm weather like me. But like all things good and bad they must come to an end, and that MAY happen close to the end of Feb, and while the NWP models dont really show this the NAO index does with a -NAO(blocking over Greenland) coming back BUT by this time the cold is bound to be of shorter duration as it will be close to if not early March by then. But lets enjoy this beautiful weather coming ahead for the SE. Next week that is.

Update on possible snow this week(Wed night-Thursday)

Well now we are 72-84 hours of the possible snow event and most models have now backed off a big snow and now showing a more weak storm and lower QPF amounts. With that in mind the models have fliped back and fourth between showing snow, and none. I think there it is still possible for light snow Wed night into early Thursday morning. But with a weaker system and a few other things not in favor for a big snow I think its safe to say this does NOT look like a big snow for central NC. More of a light snow event looks more likely. Also the NAO, AO going + and PNA going and staying -, It looks like greater warmth is on the way after this week. Ill have more on this warm up later on today.