Up's and downs is the rule. Talking about the upcomeing weather pattern.

The roller coaster of temps has begun, and with that comes the spring like weather patterns of warm/cold/warm/cold. That looks to be the rule in the coming week or so. Ill start by showing the day 10 mean temp departure for the GFS.

This is for Friday Feb 18. And thats a lot of warmth in fact the upper mid west may see rain and not snow sometime in the coming week. Also I should have post this image first but this is for next Thursday Feb 17th showing a BIG SE ridge and lots of warmth coming up and a storm system out over the Rockies, and while its too early to really say, But there could be some severe weather to follow this warm up in the southern plains and deep south.

Also looking at the end of week 2 temps the GFS shows mostly a warm pattern for much of the US.

I also like the look of the EC and GFS 8-10day mean H5 (500mb) height anomaly.

Just a beautiful warm pattern if your a lover of warm weather like me. But like all things good and bad they must come to an end, and that MAY happen close to the end of Feb, and while the NWP models dont really show this the NAO index does with a -NAO(blocking over Greenland) coming back BUT by this time the cold is bound to be of shorter duration as it will be close to if not early March by then. But lets enjoy this beautiful weather coming ahead for the SE. Next week that is.

Update on possible snow this week(Wed night-Thursday)

Well now we are 72-84 hours of the possible snow event and most models have now backed off a big snow and now showing a more weak storm and lower QPF amounts. With that in mind the models have fliped back and fourth between showing snow, and none. I think there it is still possible for light snow Wed night into early Thursday morning. But with a weaker system and a few other things not in favor for a big snow I think its safe to say this does NOT look like a big snow for central NC. More of a light snow event looks more likely. Also the NAO, AO going + and PNA going and staying -, It looks like greater warmth is on the way after this week. Ill have more on this warm up later on today.

Colder times ahead, followed by some warmth.

The roller coaster ride of temps has begun. After a warm Wed, with highs in the 60s across central NC, to temps today hardly making it out of the 30s. But we will get a break by this weekend, after a cold rain Friday. Sunday and next Monday should be nice days with highs in the 50s, Before another arctic front drops in with real cold temps coming back. Heres some forecast model images.

GFS for next Wed afternoon showing highs not getting out of the upper 20s, But Im not gong with that below is the ECMWF (European) model showing temps in the low to mid 30s and Ill lean towards that for now.

Either way its looking to get real cold again. Heres the GFS mean temps from normal for the 10th

Well below normal around the 10-13th is what Im expecting.  Here you can see why I big 500mb through will carve out in the eastern US,

And that will push arctic air in. But fear not cause for us warm weather lovers there is a light at the end of this dark cold tunnel shown below with the GFS forecast for afternoon high by the 15 of Feb

Look at that 60s possible, I sure think so by mid month. Also heres the CFS(Climate Forecast System) a US monthly forecast model for Feb.

I like the look of that and feel that Feb will be overall warmer than Jan was for the SE, although expect some cold shots here and there(after all it is the middle of Winter). Thats it for now I just wanted to give a heads up on the coming cold cold air then behind that a warm up by mid month. Ill have more on the possible snow by this weekend, but as of today it still looks possible that we could get some snow the GFS is all over the place while the EC is still showing this along with the GFS Ens members (some) also.