Severe weather, area of most concern.

This is my main area of concern for tomorrows severe weather, for centers of popualtion.

Mian concerns, Strong Damaging winds, and tornadoes. hail aslo likely.

Outlook for March.

The month of March is almost upon us, and I think its time we look at a few monthly/seasonal forecast models to get a feel for how March may turn out. First here's the US Climate Forecast System (CFS). for the 500mb height anomaly.

A real La Nina pattern with a Bearing Sea ridge, and a Southern/SE US Ridge. Also note the trough in the west or just off the west coast. Here's the CFS 2meter 6ft temps (close to the surface) anomaly for March.

Big time warmth in the Southern Plains forecast by this model and I for one agree on that. Heres another model from NCC/BCC for the 30day mean 500mb anomaly from Feb 21 to March 22ed.

This model also keeps a mean ridge over the SE and a mean trough in the western US. But lets take a look at the probability map from the CFS for March in the temp department.

Good agreement with the southern plains staying warm and toasty, I think us here in the SE/Southern Mid Atlantic will stay warm for the most part but some cooler than avg times may be ahead in the month of March of us but likely not TOO cold or not lasting long either. Well what are the CPC boys saying, heres their real forecast map for March as of Feb 17th so likely this WILL be updated very soon so check the CPC out at this link http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

As I said this is the forecast from the 17th of Feb, so soon they should update it and we may see that warmth expand more east to account for the deep south,(ie, GA,FL)more so BUT we'll see.

Severe Weather coming to the south central US/South East.

Some severe weather is in store for the southern central US in the next 12-36hrs, heres the Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow Thurs.

A mod risk, when you see that in early spring/late winter you know it means business. But lets focus on our area here in central North Carolina. Tomorrow should be a mostly cloudy day with some rain showers possible later in the day with highs in the mid to upper 50. Overnight a warm front should surge northward bringing much more warmth and moisture with it into much of NC east of the mounts. Heres the NAM forecast model for Friday morning, with the 10C line at 5000ft meaning a lot of warmth coming in.

Also take a look at the NAM simulated radar forecast for Friday morning, see that line of storms over the SE that could form into a squall line, meaning a line of fast moving showers and embedded thunderstorms with possible tornadoes as well.

Heres a look at a higher Res model called the NMM WRF.

A bit better view of the line of showers and storms. Another thing to look at is the Surface to 500mb(18,000ft) wind shear and shear of 40-50knts or greater indicates winds are favorable for supercell storms(those are the ones that produce tornadoes)

So while I dont expect the severe weather threat to be nearly as high as west of us, I cant rule out a few severe storms here as the main line moves through with strong winds(even after the storms move by the wind will kick up most of the day)or even a tornado. Also even by after noon there could be a few pop up showers and storms as the sounding below shows moisture in the lowest 4-3000ft and some aftnoon heating.

 

That image above is for 4pm Friday aftnoon showing a few storms still possible as the cold font will not fuly sweep through till later that evening.