Outlook for March.

The month of March is almost upon us, and I think its time we look at a few monthly/seasonal forecast models to get a feel for how March may turn out. First here's the US Climate Forecast System (CFS). for the 500mb height anomaly.

A real La Nina pattern with a Bearing Sea ridge, and a Southern/SE US Ridge. Also note the trough in the west or just off the west coast. Here's the CFS 2meter 6ft temps (close to the surface) anomaly for March.

Big time warmth in the Southern Plains forecast by this model and I for one agree on that. Heres another model from NCC/BCC for the 30day mean 500mb anomaly from Feb 21 to March 22ed.

This model also keeps a mean ridge over the SE and a mean trough in the western US. But lets take a look at the probability map from the CFS for March in the temp department.

Good agreement with the southern plains staying warm and toasty, I think us here in the SE/Southern Mid Atlantic will stay warm for the most part but some cooler than avg times may be ahead in the month of March of us but likely not TOO cold or not lasting long either. Well what are the CPC boys saying, heres their real forecast map for March as of Feb 17th so likely this WILL be updated very soon so check the CPC out at this link http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

As I said this is the forecast from the 17th of Feb, so soon they should update it and we may see that warmth expand more east to account for the deep south,(ie, GA,FL)more so BUT we'll see.