Friday, February 18, 2011

Could harsh cold come back to the US somewhere???

Just a heads up here as I was looking at the 10mb layer and well heres a current view of the temps
Ok now see this, lets look at the temp from the last day,
See that below normal tmeps in Europe, that corresponds to the warmer stratosphere while the temps over the US have been warmer because of the colder stratosphere over the north pole.
So where do we go from here lets look at day 10 stratosphere forecast.
What could this translate into, well much colder air coming into the Pac NW and Western Canada, by the GFS forecast 850mb temp anomalies below.
Also due in part to the trough thats in the west, but also there are signs of this cold air moving east,
We can see by day 13 above that the colder 850 anomalies are moving into the northern plains. The GFS by day 14 would show this colder air moving into the eastern US and this is also supported by some monthly forecast models. 

We can see the cold 2 meter temps on the GEFS on Mon Feb 28 in the NW US. Then by March 4 (Day14)
we can see all this warmth across the northern/eastern north eastern US erased.
Day 14



But heres some proof about the connection between the 10mb and surface, Ok lets look at Jan 30th 2011 10mb temp anomalies,

See warm 10mb over western hemisphere. Then a week to a week 1/2 later(Feb1-12) this is what it lead too, as there is a lag in time.
So this is just my thoughts on what COULD be to come in March, we'll see.

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