Big spread in next weeks storm, among the models

Nice weekend coming up from Friday on into Sunday really, although Saturday will take the cake for a while it looks like as the models really are having a hard time for next weeks system heres what I mean. We'll first look at the GFS for Tuesday evening.

Thats valid on next Tuesday evening, over all showing a storm system in the Gulf starting up. But as me move on the the Canadian model it shows something different, really showing an ice set up.

 
See those two lows in red and that blue line, that blue line shows cold air damming (CAD) on the eastern side of the mountains with low shallow cold air at the surface and if cold enough can cause ice and i can tell you now the surface temps from the CMC show us below freezing. But lets look at the upper levels to get a better idea, after all what happens up above causes what happens at the surface.

This is the GFS upper level chart for Tuesday evening and it shows a few pieces of energy, but the one causing the surface low in the Gulf is the short/wave over TX. Now lets look at the CMC upper level chart.

See same time, but its faster with the short/wave and its now going negative tilt(shown in white over TN) also in red is the ridge out west and thats needed to help dive this energy more south.  One last model to get an idea is the Euro model and I must say its flip flopped big time from yesterdays run (like a fish outa water)

Its more inline with the GFS (albit slower) also the EC upper level chart

see the main short/wave is in TX just like the GFS and a good ridge out west. And the EC on Weds evening showing a bit of a wintry set up.

  But wait dont get too happy just yet, as these are just operational models, meaning we look at these first then we look at whats called the Ensemble members or the means (average) so lets look at those real quick
First the GFS

This is Weds evening GFS mean, compare to the EC mean

Look at this the Low on Wednesday evening is up north not south and east like the OP EC.

Heres the CMC mean run Weds evening and its head strong on a double barrel low or (Miller B) set up. So with all this said you can see there is a lot of model runs we must go through before can be have a better idea for next week and I am in no way saying its going to snow, or an Ice storm is coming Im NOT going with that just yet right Now I will keep things below normal on temps in the low to mid 40s Tues-Wed and possible rain(or even rain/snow mix Wed), of course as time get closer I will update this but thats it for today Ill be spending time with my family again Fri-Sun so look for another post Sunday evening.