Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Wednesday night/early Thursday morning update for wintry weather next week.

Well the evening models are in and while there remains some differences one thing still remains, and thats the possibility for some type of winter weather here in central NC early next week.
Now I have some images here to help you better understand what were looking at.
Heres the 00z Jan 20th new model run for Monday afternoon around 1pm showing strong cold air damming in central western NC on this surface chart.




Next image is the 850mb (5000ft freezing line is good for snow rain to snow line) and at that time its in the southern Piedmont of NC.



So we would have to watch to see how far north that gets before a change over to freezing rain or rain.
Now the CMC(Canadian) model is a little less with any snow and showing more freezing rain to rain set up.



Not to mention its slower than the GFS, and that may be a trend a slower solution may mean less snow and more ice/to rain for central NC. And heres the ECMWF model Mon evening.



Good CAD (cold air damming) but have to watch that 850 warm front. But by Tuesday evening even the EC goes over to rain/freezing rain, so as I said still lots of time to watch this possible storm but Ill keep you updated on the latest.
I do want to note though from tomorrow evening (Thursday-Sunday) I will be out of town but I will post when I have the time but Ill make sure to be back Sunday evening to update you all and thanks for reading.   

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