Colder times ahead, followed by some warmth.

The roller coaster ride of temps has begun. After a warm Wed, with highs in the 60s across central NC, to temps today hardly making it out of the 30s. But we will get a break by this weekend, after a cold rain Friday. Sunday and next Monday should be nice days with highs in the 50s, Before another arctic front drops in with real cold temps coming back. Heres some forecast model images.

GFS for next Wed afternoon showing highs not getting out of the upper 20s, But Im not gong with that below is the ECMWF (European) model showing temps in the low to mid 30s and Ill lean towards that for now.

Either way its looking to get real cold again. Heres the GFS mean temps from normal for the 10th

Well below normal around the 10-13th is what Im expecting.  Here you can see why I big 500mb through will carve out in the eastern US,

And that will push arctic air in. But fear not cause for us warm weather lovers there is a light at the end of this dark cold tunnel shown below with the GFS forecast for afternoon high by the 15 of Feb

Look at that 60s possible, I sure think so by mid month. Also heres the CFS(Climate Forecast System) a US monthly forecast model for Feb.

I like the look of that and feel that Feb will be overall warmer than Jan was for the SE, although expect some cold shots here and there(after all it is the middle of Winter). Thats it for now I just wanted to give a heads up on the coming cold cold air then behind that a warm up by mid month. Ill have more on the possible snow by this weekend, but as of today it still looks possible that we could get some snow the GFS is all over the place while the EC is still showing this along with the GFS Ens members (some) also.

Cooler the next few days, then later half of weekend nice, Then more cold SNOW???

Today Wed, will be the last 60 degree day we see for a while so while its windy enjoy it. Thursday and Friday will be cooler with tomorrow being in the mid 40s and Friday maybe not getting out of the upper 30s and rain. But let me skip ahead to next week around Wednesday/Thursday time frame. While there are some model differences (as to be expected this far out) but I thought this should be brought up. Ok lets start with the GFS for next Wed, this is from the latest 12z (or 7am Feb2 run) and taking a look at this would imply some possible snow.

Now Ill say the 6z (1am run) was more robust with this system and a bit powerful, but still both show possible snow. Heres the 500mb GFS chart for Wed (next) morning showing the upper level energy spawning the surface Low.

This is valid at 1am Wed morning with strong upper level vort max. Also its interesting to note some of the GFS ensemble members (not the mean) showing this possible out come.

The ones outlined in back show possible snow storm, with a few showing a big one, BUT this is only a few out of 12 members SO no need to get all hyped up cause most as of now dont show this. Plus the Canadian is not on our side either, its shows more of a cold front coming through with rain.

(click to enlarge all images) But this is just a sneak peak at what may be to come, Ill have more as by this weekend on next week. Now lets take a look at the long range while I do expect a cold blast just before Valentines day, I do think a warm up is in store there after take a look at the OP GFS for Feb 17 evening.

Ahh, a nice warm up for the SE, a true La Nina patter looks to take shape, also to help increase my feelings in this heres the GFS Ens Mean for the same time frame.

A ridge in the SE and a ridge in the eastern Pacific with a trough in the Western US. Thats it for now Ill have more on next weeks storm (rain or snow) by weeks end. Thank you for reading. 




 

Rain moving in tonight, then windy warm day tomorrow.

Today should see temps hold in the mid to upper 40s across central NC today with a wedge air mass still in place (chilly air mass) as shown in the image below by the rusty orange color.

By later on tonight that front should lift north as a warm front with rising temps from the upper 40s to the upper 50s and low 60s by sun rise tomorrow. But first heres the thunderstorm outlook for today into tonight

I have outlined in red were today/tonights severe weather should be, and in yellow that shows areas where nonsevere storms could be including here by early tomorrow morning, you could be some thunder with any heavy shower that comes by as shown by the Hi Res WRF forecast model below.

Also I have a forecast sounding here ( a vertical profile of the atmosphere) and it too shows small instability.

But again I believe most of us here in Central NC should see some heavy rain early tomorrow morning and a small chance as of now of hearing any thunder, but its possible. Heres the set up for the rest of the US today with the Deep south seeing severe weather and Mid West seeing blizzard conditions and heavy snow and icing.

As for central NC we will see the bulk of our rain move in tonight into tomorrow morning and then turning WINDY with gusts up to 35-40mph possible so hold on.