Severe weather, area of most concern.

This is my main area of concern for tomorrows severe weather, for centers of popualtion.

Mian concerns, Strong Damaging winds, and tornadoes. hail aslo likely.

Outlook for March.

The month of March is almost upon us, and I think its time we look at a few monthly/seasonal forecast models to get a feel for how March may turn out. First here's the US Climate Forecast System (CFS). for the 500mb height anomaly.

A real La Nina pattern with a Bearing Sea ridge, and a Southern/SE US Ridge. Also note the trough in the west or just off the west coast. Here's the CFS 2meter 6ft temps (close to the surface) anomaly for March.

Big time warmth in the Southern Plains forecast by this model and I for one agree on that. Heres another model from NCC/BCC for the 30day mean 500mb anomaly from Feb 21 to March 22ed.

This model also keeps a mean ridge over the SE and a mean trough in the western US. But lets take a look at the probability map from the CFS for March in the temp department.

Good agreement with the southern plains staying warm and toasty, I think us here in the SE/Southern Mid Atlantic will stay warm for the most part but some cooler than avg times may be ahead in the month of March of us but likely not TOO cold or not lasting long either. Well what are the CPC boys saying, heres their real forecast map for March as of Feb 17th so likely this WILL be updated very soon so check the CPC out at this link http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

As I said this is the forecast from the 17th of Feb, so soon they should update it and we may see that warmth expand more east to account for the deep south,(ie, GA,FL)more so BUT we'll see.

Severe Weather coming to the south central US/South East.

Some severe weather is in store for the southern central US in the next 12-36hrs, heres the Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow Thurs.

A mod risk, when you see that in early spring/late winter you know it means business. But lets focus on our area here in central North Carolina. Tomorrow should be a mostly cloudy day with some rain showers possible later in the day with highs in the mid to upper 50. Overnight a warm front should surge northward bringing much more warmth and moisture with it into much of NC east of the mounts. Heres the NAM forecast model for Friday morning, with the 10C line at 5000ft meaning a lot of warmth coming in.

Also take a look at the NAM simulated radar forecast for Friday morning, see that line of storms over the SE that could form into a squall line, meaning a line of fast moving showers and embedded thunderstorms with possible tornadoes as well.

Heres a look at a higher Res model called the NMM WRF.

A bit better view of the line of showers and storms. Another thing to look at is the Surface to 500mb(18,000ft) wind shear and shear of 40-50knts or greater indicates winds are favorable for supercell storms(those are the ones that produce tornadoes)

So while I dont expect the severe weather threat to be nearly as high as west of us, I cant rule out a few severe storms here as the main line moves through with strong winds(even after the storms move by the wind will kick up most of the day)or even a tornado. Also even by after noon there could be a few pop up showers and storms as the sounding below shows moisture in the lowest 4-3000ft and some aftnoon heating.

 

That image above is for 4pm Friday aftnoon showing a few storms still possible as the cold font will not fuly sweep through till later that evening.

Cooler weather for the next few days, followed by some rain possible? by weekends

Today was another nice warm day, typical of April than Late Feb but Ill take it. For Tuesday and Wednesday we'll see highs back in the mid to upper 50s so still a few degrees above avg so not bad. But as we head into Thursday we should see a Cold Air Damming event (minor one) Thurs morning but by Thursday evening should see temps and moisture surge northward this way.

Possibly causing some light rain overnight Thursday into Friday morn. By Friday afternoon we should see the cold front makes its way through, although it does not look like severe wx for us there could be a rumble of thunder,

EC

But the best upper level support (on the EC) goes north leaving us with just a soaking rain, the GFS on the other hand being farther south with this Low could spell severe wx for eastern NC but we'll see, and I have a feeling the EC may be right.

A look back at the Jet stream position and the effects on our weather(also on my Liveweatherblogs.com page)

Got to love the Sub Tropical Jet

If your a warm weather lover like myself, heres a look back at the first part of winter from Dec1st 2010 to Jan31st 2011.

First the Jet stream, and you can see the Polar jet.

Mean position of the jet stream during the first 2 months of winter.

Next is the mean surface temps, and one can note the COLD over the East South East US.

Really cold stuff for us southerners. But the first 2 weeks of Feb have overall turned out warmer heres the Jet stream as of Feb 1 to Feb 16 and we can see the STJ kick in as La Nina makes her self known.

And along with that comes warmer mean temps as noted below,

Ahhh, we can see warmer mean surface temps and thats what I like to see, but not to worry for my firends up north winter is coming back for you!

Could harsh cold come back to the US somewhere???

Just a heads up here as I was looking at the 10mb layer and well heres a current view of the temps

Ok now see this, lets look at the temp from the last day,

See that below normal tmeps in Europe, that corresponds to the warmer stratosphere while the temps over the US have been warmer because of the colder stratosphere over the north pole.
So where do we go from here lets look at day 10 stratosphere forecast.

What could this translate into, well much colder air coming into the Pac NW and Western Canada, by the GFS forecast 850mb temp anomalies below.

Also due in part to the trough thats in the west, but also there are signs of this cold air moving east,

We can see by day 13 above that the colder 850 anomalies are moving into the northern plains. The GFS by day 14 would show this colder air moving into the eastern US and this is also supported by some monthly forecast models. 

We can see the cold 2 meter temps on the GEFS on Mon Feb 28 in the NW US. Then by March 4 (Day14)
we can see all this warmth across the northern/eastern north eastern US erased.

Day 14

But heres some proof about the connection between the 10mb and surface, Ok lets look at Jan 30th 2011 10mb temp anomalies,

See warm 10mb over western hemisphere. Then a week to a week 1/2 later(Feb1-12) this is what it lead too, as there is a lag in time.

So this is just my thoughts on what COULD be to come in March, we'll see.

Warm record challenging temps tomorrow a bit cooler by early next week.

Tomorrow will be the warmest day thus far (if we make it) it will be foggy by morning but should clear late morning and sun should come out by afternoon tomorrow. Winds will be out of the south west at 15-25mph. For tomorrows high Im going with 73 our record for tomorrow is 71 set back in 2008.

Now for Tuesday of next week temps will cool down big time of Friday and this weekend. GFS Tuesday below (temps only in the 40s)

So a cool down for a few days may be possible next week, but is that it for the warm air maybe not by Thursday into Friday we may see some mild air come back BUT this time with some rain possible.

Looking long range in the 8-10day I think we may finish the month on a mild note, noted by the ridge over the SE.

Calm and beautiful rest of this week, and Friday could challenge records?

After a beautiful buit windy Monday, we hit a high here in the Triad area of 71F, first 70 degree day this year!. Today was a bit cooler as a dry cold front slipped on through. Wednesday should be a bit warmer with temps in the upper 50s to maybe even some low 60s across central NC.  As we get into Friday we should see yet another warm spring like day(although a bit breezy) here the GFS for Friday afternoon.

with surface pressure and 850mb temps and 10C over NC should translate to low to mid 70s across the state Friday. In fact heres the GFS and Euro High temps for Friday.

EC

although they show us getting between 65 and 70, I think the models are a little underdone so Im going with 73 for Greensboro, and if so that would break our old record of 71 back in Feb 18th 2008. Upper 70s are even possible in south eastern NC. Also look at the nice 500mb ridge over the SE US Friday,

Just beautiful if you want to see warm weather in winter. By next weekend though we may see a cool down as another dry front slides by but more on that later.

Big warmth by end of next week.

Saturday was the start of our warm up here in the Caroina's and Sunday is looking to be even warmer. While Monday we may reach the low to mid 60s here in central North Carolina Monday will have a weak dry front move through only bringing temps into the mid to upper 50s Tuesday then Wed-Thursday should see another bigger warm up and by Firday we should be back in the mid to upper 60s and same if not 70 by Saturday,
Heres both the GFS and EC ensembles for Friday morning.

Both shows a big warm up with 850mb temps close to 10/12C and that would translate to mid tp upper 60s and possible low 70s.
Heres the ECENS for Sunday morning showing a stalled cold front around the Carolina's bringing some possible rain.

But the ECMWF OP is leaning more towards Monday on this stalled front.

Next week forecast. Feb14-18th.

Warmth will be the main story around here next week with the warm up starting this weekend. Saturday should see temps in the low 50s and Sunday we will probably get close to hitting 60. On Monday there will be a weak front move through cooling us down only a few degrees on Tuesday.

In blue- Upper level energy that will bring a weak cold front by.
In red the upper level ridge that will bring in the warmth by next week.
Tuesday/Wednesday temps will be in the mid to upper 50s and Thursday temps should be in the low 60s with mid 60s by Friday. But Next Saturday Feb 19th get ready for this as temps (by the ECMWF) should hit 70.

It may be hard to see but click to enlarge. Also the long range models show a +EPO and that means a ridge in the eastern Pacific a trough in the west and ridging in the SE US, and if this were to hold true then I dont see a big cold shot for a while but minor cool downs will come but I think the true La Nina pattern may just hold at least till the end of the month.
One more thing here is the snow fall totals across NC with eastern NC taking the cake as I forecasted.

Wednesday evening snow forecast update.

Heres the latest from the NWS watch/warnings and most of eastern NC is either in a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning. Also areas just SW of the Triad, Charlotte is also in winter weather advisory. Heres the RUC with the liquid accumulated precip and I have in white the area in NE NC that could to anywhere from 2-5in of snow by tomorrow morning. 

Also the watch/warning map

The GFS also picks up on some possible modest snow amounts in north east NC.

As for us just east of the mountains to just west of the Triangle we look to get less than an inch, (if your lucky you may get up to 1'') so for the Triad area this will be a small to none event as the moisture really drys out coming over the Mnts and the surface low weakens, But the low off the coast will gain strength and crank up the precip out there so for now if your around the Triad area anywhere from north of Charlotte and west of the Triangle were going to miss out on this for the most part, ALTHOUGH I cant rule out a small area getting 1-2in but mostly a dusting to 1/2in at beast. 

Snow outlook for central North Carolina, Wednesday evening-Thursday morning.

Tuesday evening update for snow coming to NC tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Lets start with a forecast for snowfall in central plains states, where up to a foot is expected.

Heres what the snow forecast looks like for us here in the Carolinas.

Yes hardly any, because this system is going to weaken as it moves east into the SE US. So light QPF amounts can be expected here in NC, BUT eastern NC may see 2-4in of snow and thus Winter Storm watches are out.
Lets take a look at the forecast models for Wed-Thursday. We'll start off with the NAM 7am forecast map

Any precip that falls north of the blue box I have drawn will fall mostly as snow. So why so little snow expected for NC(well central NC) lets look at the NAM for 1am Thursday morning,

You can see the Low really weakens and in fact we start to see a Low develop off the Carolina coast and that will help enhance snow along eastern NC. but us here in central NC should see less, But I cant rule out a few areas getting up to an inch or so but mostly snow showers to flurries.
Then we look at what the NAM (short range) computer model shows for snowcover (on a 10:1 ratio).

And this is by 7am Thursday morning and Im leaning with less amounts for places just east of the mountains to Raleigh.